Web£ºen.jyhuju.com
Email£ºzhguoy8@126.com
Development resilience continues to demonstrate, innovation momentum accelerates accumulation - Q&A transcript of the press conference on the operation of the non-ferrous metal industry in the first half of 2026
On July 29, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA) held a press conference on the operation of the nonferrous metals industry in the first half of 2026. Chen Xuesen, Member of the Party Committee Standing Committee, Vice President and Spokesperson of the Association; Duan Shaofu, Deputy Secretary-General and Director of the Heavy Metals Department (Mineral Resources Office); and Liu Hua, Director of the Science and Technology Department, took questions from journalists and enterprise representatives. Ding L¨¹, Deputy Vice President of China Nonferrous Metals News, moderated the press conference.
? Xinhua News Agency: What progress has the futures market made since the start of 2026 in serving the international development of the nonferrous metals industry and the high-quality development of the recycled metals industry?
Chen Xuesen: As an important component of the modern financial system, the futures market plays a vital role in supporting risk management, resource allocation and price discovery for the nonferrous metals industry.
In terms of facilitating the international development of the nonferrous metals industry, the institutional opening of domestic nonferrous metals futures varieties officially took effect with nickel as the pilot, opening the market to global investors. In April this year, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) launched nickel futures and options for overseas traders, concurrently opening access to qualified foreign investors. Since the launch of relevant businesses, the market has operated generally steadily. Overseas participants and qualified foreign investors have gradually entered the market. Prices between domestic and overseas futures, as well as futures and spot prices, show strong correlation, offering a key channel for nickel industrial chain enterprises worldwide to access China¡¯s market and manage price risks. The internationalization of nickel futures also provides practical experience for the institutional opening of more bulk commodity futures.
When it comes to supporting the high-quality development of the recycled metals industry, the futures market has kept pace with the industry¡¯s green and low-carbon transition and successively introduced recycled aluminium and recycled lead products. In June 2025, SHFE launched cast aluminium alloy futures, China¡¯s first recycled metals futures product. In the first year after listing, cast aluminium alloy futures operated smoothly with close linkage between futures and spot prices, gradually demonstrating market functions. It has effectively helped enterprises stabilise production schedules, lock in production profits, lifted recycled aluminium enterprises¡¯ risk management capabilities, and driven the recycled aluminium industry toward transformation and upgrading in the direction of standardisation, regulation and green development. Enterprises along the industrial chain actively adopt cast aluminium alloy futures prices to carry out basis trading and basis inquiry. As of June 9, the cumulative trading volume of cast aluminium alloy futures stood at approximately 22.7469 million tonnes, with cumulative delivery volume reaching 76,700 tonnes. Building on progress in supporting the recycled aluminium sector and in response to the trend of coordinated development of primary and recycled lead in China, SHFE incorporated recycled lead into the delivery system for lead futures in March this year after extensive consultations with upstream and downstream enterprises in the lead industrial chain, providing industrial players with more efficient risk management tools.
Going forward, the Association will strengthen cooperation with SHFE and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) to deliver better market services and nurture market development, enabling the futures market to better support the green and low-carbon transition and high-quality development of the nonferrous metals industry.
? People¡¯s Daily: What factors have driven the higher-than-expected growth in exports of copper and aluminium fabricated products in the first half of 2026?
Duan Shaofu: On copper fabricated products: data from the General Administration of Customs shows that China exported 554,500 tonnes of copper fabricated products in January¨CJune 2026, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%, while imports reached 180,000 tonnes, down 1.3% year on year. Major copper fabricated product categories recorded robust export growth: exports of copper rods and wires totalled 177,900 tonnes, surging 89.9% year on year; copper plates and strips hit 71,300 tonnes, rising 18.1%; and copper foils reached 93,000 tonnes, up 31.4%.
Overall, export growth of copper fabricated products in the first half outperformed industry expectations at the start of the year, resulting from combined demand-side expansion and supply-side advantages.
Four major factors fuelled the rapid export growth:
First, overseas copper consumption demand exceeded expectations, with emerging sectors acting as core growth drivers. Global copper demand is no longer mainly driven by traditional infrastructure and real estate but by artificial intelligence (AI) and new energy industries. In the first half, demand from overseas AI computing infrastructure and energy storage sectors grew far beyond market forecasts. In the AI computing sector, leading technology firms in Europe and the United States continued to ramp up capital expenditure on computing power. Construction of AI servers and intelligent computing centres entered a peak phase. Key supporting components for intelligent computing centres ¡ª including liquid cooling copper tubes, high-voltage power distribution copper bars, copper foils for high-speed connectors and power busbars ¡ª require large volumes of high-precision copper fabricated products. In the energy storage sector, accelerated deployment of overseas energy storage installations boosted demand for lithium battery copper foils, energy storage connection copper bars and supporting cables. In addition, global power grid upgrades and rising penetration of new energy vehicles underpinned steady demand for copper cables and strips, jointly lifting overall demand for copper fabricated products.
Second, overseas supply of copper fabricated products is insufficient, with prominent shortages in high-end production capacity. Global copper concentrate supply remains tight, and capital expenditure in overseas copper processing segments has long been inadequate, making rapid capacity expansion impossible amid sudden demand growth. Especially in the high-end electronic copper materials sector, capacity upgrading in Europe and the United States has been slow, while new processing capacity in Southeast Asia cannot yet fill shortages in the global high-end circulation market and keep up with explosive growth in emerging industries such as AI and energy storage. The global supply gap for high-end copper fabricated products continues to widen.
Third, China boasts a complete, reliable and resilient copper processing industrial chain with outstanding comprehensive competitive advantages in high-end manufacturing. After years of development, China has built the world¡¯s most comprehensive copper processing industrial system covering full product categories and specifications, with globally leading production capacity and delivery capabilities. In high-end segments including ultra-low-profile electronic copper foils, high-precision copper plates and strips, and oxygen-free copper rods and wires, complete supporting capacity and technological reserves have been formed to rapidly respond to high-end overseas orders. In recent years, the industry has made positive progress in overseas industrial layout and market expansion, greatly strengthening global supply capacity. Against a backdrop of sustained geopolitical tensions and fragile global supply chains in 2026, China¡¯s copper processing sector stands out as a core source of global copper fabricated product procurement, thanks to its complete industrial system and stable delivery schedules.
Fourth, domestic copper processing enterprises seized opportunities created by higher copper prices overseas than domestic prices to boost exports and lift profitability. Overseas copper prices remained elevated in the first half, with wide domestic-overseas price spreads expanding profit margins for domestic processors. Enterprises actively reached out to clients in overseas emerging sectors and ramped up exports, driving sharp growth in export volumes.
On aluminium fabricated products: customs data shows China exported 3.044 million tonnes of aluminium fabricated products in January¨CJune 2026, up 12.2% year on year. Exports of aluminium extruded products totalled 507,000 tonnes (+8.6% YoY); aluminium plates and strips 1.789 million tonnes (+18.7% YoY); aluminium foils 683,000 tonnes (-0.2% YoY). Exports of aluminium articles (including aluminium alloy wheels) reached 2.576 million tonnes, a year-on-year rise of 16.4%. Combined exports of aluminium fabricated products and aluminium articles hit 5.62 million tonnes, growing 14.1% year on year. Imports of aluminium fabricated products stood at 156,000 tonnes (-15.4% YoY), while imports of aluminium articles were 20,000 tonnes (+30.6% YoY). Total imports of aluminium fabricated products and aluminium articles reached 176,000 tonnes, down 11.9% year on year, providing strong support for domestic exports.
Fourth key factors underpinned export growth for aluminium products:
First, overseas aluminium consumption demand remains solid. Consumption in developed economies of Europe and the United States stays robust, while demand from developing countries keeps rising.
Second, overseas aluminium supply faces shortages. Ongoing US-Iran conflicts have disrupted production and triggered output cuts at aluminium smelters in the Gulf region. High energy costs have delayed the restart of idled electrolytic aluminium capacity in Europe and the United States, and new capacity in Southeast Asia cannot yet offset shortages in global supply.
Third, China¡¯s aluminium industrial chain is complete, reliable and resilient with prominent comprehensive competitive advantages in aluminium processing. The industry has achieved progress in overseas layout and market expansion in recent years, greatly enhancing global supply capacity.
Fourth, domestic aluminium processing and aluminium article manufacturers took advantage of higher overseas aluminium prices to increase exports and secure sound earnings, fuelling export growth.
Overall, the higher-than-expected export growth of copper and aluminium fabricated products in the first half reflects the strong competitiveness of China¡¯s nonferrous metals processing industry amid global industrial upgrading.
? China Media Group: The aluminium industry in China saw rising business sentiment in the first half of 2026. What core factors are driving improved profitability in the sector? How do you view the ongoing shift toward high-value deep processing within the industry?
Chen Xuesen: Business performance of China¡¯s aluminium industry improved markedly in the first half of 2026 with strong profit indicators. Industry profits rose 114.84% year on year, and its share of total profits across the nonferrous metals sector climbed from 35.61% in the same period last year to 39.43%, an increase of 3.82 percentage points. By segment, profits in the aluminium smelting sector grew 117% year on year; its profit share rose from 29.8% to 33.4%. Electrolytic aluminium remained the core profit driver, while alumina and recycled aluminium generated only modest profits. The aluminium smelting sector contributed 34.9% to profit growth across the nonferrous metals industry, far exceeding the 22.15% from nonferrous metal mining and dressing and 10.33% from nonferrous metal rolling. New profits from aluminium smelting accounted for 37.11% of total new profits in the nonferrous metals sector, making it the primary engine lifting industry profitability.
Three favourable conditions underpin the significant profit improvement for the aluminium industry:
First, domestic policies capping electrolytic aluminium capacity have delivered results, forming rigid constraints on supply. China strictly enforces the upper limit control mechanism for electrolytic aluminium capacity, with clear and controllable expectations for new capacity. Supply-side structural reform continues to generate long-term dividends, laying a solid foundation for stable, high-quality development of the aluminium industry.
Second, overseas geopolitical tensions tightened global supply and pushed up the overall aluminium price level. Geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran disrupted production and circulation in the Middle Eastern aluminium industrial chain, shifting the global aluminium market into a tight balance. LME social aluminium inventories remained persistently low, lifting international aluminium prices and spot premiums, which transmitted inward and boosted domestic aluminium prices. The average domestic spot aluminium price rose 18.8% year on year in the first half, directly expanding industry profit margins.
Third, domestic and overseas demand jointly supported stable production and sales. On the domestic front, power infrastructure and new energy sectors continued to expand, driving steady growth in traditional and emerging aluminium consumption. Externally, regional aluminium supply shortages overseas together with widening domestic-overseas aluminium price gaps strongly boosted exports of aluminium fabricated products. Combined exports of unwrought aluminium, aluminium fabricated products and aluminium articles reached 5.972 million tonnes in the first half, up 16.3% year on year, with overseas markets serving as an important source of demand.
Meanwhile, the shift toward high-value deep processing represents an inevitable trend for pursuing a new industrialisation path and developing new quality productive forces. In recent years, relying on four development pathways ¡ª technological innovation, digital and intelligent transformation, green and low-carbon upgrading, and vertical integration of industrial chains ¡ª China¡¯s aluminium industry has continuously developed special aluminium-based new materials suited for cutting-edge sectors including new energy vehicles, low-altitude economy, computing power, energy storage and high-end equipment manufacturing. Products include power battery aluminium foils, high-toughness aluminium alloys, heat-treatment-free die-casting alloys, high-end aluminium materials for aerospace and supporting deep-processed components.
At present, the long-term mechanism capping total electrolytic aluminium capacity is clear. Growth driven purely by expanding primary aluminium capacity is no longer viable. Against this backdrop, developing high-end new materials and high-value deep processing tracks is a practical choice for the aluminium industry to break capacity constraints and unlock new growth potential. It also aligns fully with the national high-quality development direction for traditional industries ¡ª high-end, intelligent and green transformation ¡ª with broad development prospects.
? Science and Technology Daily: Driven by demand for artificial intelligence computing power, supply tightness and price hikes have emerged for certain nonferrous metals in the first half of 2026. These metals are dubbed ¡°computing power metals¡±. Will this trend continue? How should the industry adjust and respond?
Duan Shaofu: Accelerated construction of global AI computing infrastructure has spurred concentrated demand growth for copper, aluminium, tin, tantalum, indium and other related nonferrous metals in the first half, pushing up prices considerably. The market refers to these varieties as ¡°computing power metals¡±. Data shows prices of three core minor metals ¡ª tin, tantalum and indium ¡ª surged more than 40%, 158% and 60% respectively in the first six months. Prices of bulk varieties copper and aluminium also stayed elevated, rising 31.4% and 18.8% respectively in January¨CJune.
The current market upswing stems from the combined effect of rigid supply constraints and expanding demand from emerging industries. On the demand side, AI servers, high-speed optical modules and advanced packaging require irreplaceable physical inputs of tin, tantalum and indium, while global cloud vendors continue to expand capital expenditure on AI. On the supply side, the full resumption of tin mining in Wa State, Myanmar has repeatedly fallen short of expectations, with mining operations further hampered by rainy seasons. Export approval policies for tin in Indonesia have tightened, leading to lower-than-expected arrivals. Geopolitical unrest and pandemic disruptions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo frequently disrupted tin supply. In addition, the Regulations for the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law of the People¡¯s Republic of China, effective June, added relevant metals to the catalogue of strategic resources, further reinforcing expectations of supply limits. Industry participants generally believe that fundamental supply-demand patterns have not yet reversed, offering support for price levels. However, monetary policy signals from the Federal Reserve and US dollar movements create sustained valuation pressure at the macro level, alongside uncertainties around geopolitical situations. Market sentiment remains highly sensitive, and substantial price fluctuation risks cannot be overlooked.
Three adjustments are needed for the industry to cope:
First, improve capacity to deliver high-quality tailored products. The computing power industrial chain demands high purity and customised materials, which creates mismatches with traditional standardised supply. Enterprises should strive to enhance product quality and consistency, refine operations under capacity constraints, better meet high-end manufacturing requirements for premium materials and boost competitiveness through differentiated supply.
Second, strengthen upstream-downstream coordination on supply and demand. Rising raw material costs have created pressure on midstream and downstream manufacturers, and some end users in application sectors are exploring alternative materials or adjusting inventory levels. Closer coordination mechanisms must be established: upstream producers should engage early with downstream parties on material selection and verification to provide technical support; downstream players should share timely demand updates to avoid market misjudgements and excessive volatility caused by information asymmetry.
Third, diversify resource security channels. Copper, aluminium, tin and other metals vital to computing power have high external dependence for mineral resources, and frequent disruptions to overseas supply have become the new normal. Enterprises should develop a portfolio of strategies including overseas equity mines, recycled resource recovery and long-term procurement contracts to strengthen supply chain resilience.
? People¡¯s Network: The Regulations for the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law of the People¡¯s Republic of China took effect on June 15. What impacts will this have on the industry?
Duan Shaofu: The newly revised Mineral Resources Law of the People¡¯s Republic of China (effective July 1, 2025) and its supporting Regulations for the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law of the People¡¯s Republic of China (effective June 15, 2026) together form a mineral resources management legal system centred on ¡°one law and one set of regulations¡±. The promulgation of the implementation regulations marks a crucial milestone in developing China¡¯s legal framework for mineral resources. It carries great significance for enhancing mineral resource security, promoting rational development and utilisation of mineral resources, safeguarding legitimate rights and interests of mining rights holders, and advancing high-quality development of the mining industry. All links of the nonferrous metals industry ¡ª including exploration, development, comprehensive utilisation and green development ¡ª will receive strong legal institutional safeguards following the enforcement of the regulations.
Specific impacts fall into three main areas:
First, building a full-chain security system to strengthen nonferrous metals resource security. To improve coordinated full-chain management, the regulations specify that the state will refine fiscal, financial, land, environmental, industrial, import and export policies. It will improve coordination across the whole chain ¡ª exploration, production, reserves, supply and distribution ¡ª for strategic mineral resources. The catalogue of strategic mineral resources will be formulated taking into consideration domestic resource endowments, scarcity, external dependence, and industrial chain supply chain resilience and security. Provisions cover reserve and emergency response systems, establishing a strategic mineral resource reserve system combining product reserves, production capacity reserves and origin reserves, alongside a forecasting and early warning system for mineral supply security. These mechanisms will comprehensively bolster security of nonferrous metals resources.
Second, green mine construction and mining area ecological restoration become statutory requirements, forcing the industry¡¯s green transition. A dedicated chapter of the regulations elaborates on ecological restoration in mining areas, further clarifying restoration liabilities. Detailed rules cover responsible parties, restoration plans, cost management, simultaneous restoration during mining, acceptance checks, and governance of historical abandoned mining areas. For the nonferrous metals industry, ecological restoration and green mine construction become legally binding requirements. While compliance costs may rise for some enterprises in the short term, the rules will drive the sector to abandon extensive development models and shift toward green and intelligent operations, consistent with the broader direction of industrial green transition.
Third, stricter requirements for conservation and intensive utilisation will lift comprehensive resource utilisation efficiency. Nonferrous metal deposits commonly contain associated minerals. The regulations stipulate that competent natural resources authorities under the State Council will jointly formulate national standards for mining recovery rates, ore dressing recovery rates and comprehensive utilisation rates. Mining rights holders must adopt suitable technologies, equipment and management practices to meet these ¡°three rates¡± standards. Policies encourage promotion of technologies for joint exploitation and utilisation of associated minerals, incentivise technological upgrading and equipment renewal, and offer reductions in mining right transfer proceeds for projects achieving outstanding comprehensive utilisation results. These measures will continuously improve resource utilisation efficiency in nonferrous metal mines and maximise the value of mineral resources.
In summary, the implementation regulations deliver a more complete institutional framework supporting high-quality development of the nonferrous metals industry under the rule of law. As provisions of the ¡°one law and one set of regulations¡± are fully implemented, the nonferrous metals industry will embrace new opportunities in mineral exploration and development, resource security, comprehensive utilisation efficiency and green low-carbon transformation.
? Economic Daily: The National Development and Reform Commission and other authorities recently issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development. At the end of 2025, the State Council released the Action Plan for the Comprehensive Treatment of Solid Waste. For the nonferrous metals industry, this creates a policy window for comprehensive utilisation of red mud, low-grade tailings and smelting slag. What are the main bottlenecks restricting large-scale, industrialised utilisation of industrial solid waste? How can industrial solid waste be converted into industrial growth drivers while cutting carbon emissions?
Liu Hua: The 15th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant ministries, together with the Action Plan for the Comprehensive Treatment of Solid Waste released by the State Council late last year, send clear policy signals supporting utilisation of bulk solid waste such as red mud, low-grade tailings and smelting slag in the nonferrous metals sector. While progress has been made in solid waste comprehensive utilisation, notable shortcomings remain in large-scale, high-value and low-carbon development.
Three major bottlenecks exist:
First, nonferrous metals solid waste covers a wide variety of categories with complex compositions, creating difficulties in disposal. Red mud features strong alkalinity; compositions of tailings and smelting slag fluctuate significantly based on raw ore sources and production conditions, hindering stable, continuous and large-scale treatment.
Second, the economic viability of solid waste treatment technologies needs improvement. Core technologies including red mud dealkalisation and high-value recovery of components from solid waste carry high costs. Current utilisation is dominated by low-end building materials, while high-value applications account for a low share. Absorption of copper tailings by the construction materials sector fluctuates with market conditions, limiting disposal capacity.
Third, cross-industry coordination mechanisms and standard systems remain incomplete. High-value utilisation of nonferrous metals solid waste relies heavily on cross-industry absorption, yet coordination between sectors is difficult, and supporting standards face barriers to implementation, restricting large-scale rollout of solid waste utilisation projects.
During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the industry will follow national circular economy and solid waste governance policies to turn solid waste resources into industrial and low-carbon growth drivers.
First, prioritise source reduction. Optimise mining, mineral processing and smelting processes to cut solid waste generation at source and ease pressure on end-of-pipe treatment.
Second, accelerate research on core technologies. Support R&D and large-scale application of low-cost technologies for comprehensive utilisation of red mud, tailings and smelting slag. Focus on recovery of valuable metals, green building material production and ecological restoration applications to build circular industrial chains for high-value utilisation.
Third, improve industry standards and cross-industry coordination mechanisms. Develop standards for solid waste recycled products, and open up channels for cross-industry absorption linking nonferrous metals with petrochemical, construction materials and transportation sectors.
? China Metallurgical News: In accordance with the requirements and targets laid out in the Circular on Launching a Three-Year Campaign for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries, what are the core priorities for high-standard energy conservation and carbon reduction in the nonferrous metals industry? How can the industry balance development and decarbonisation to tackle relevant challenges?
Liu Hua: The National Development and Reform Commission and four other ministries recently issued the Circular on Launching a Three-Year Campaign for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries (Document No. FGHH¡²2026¡³698). It targets nine industries including steel, electrolytic aluminium and cement for three years of comprehensive energy-saving and low-carbon transformation, with electrolytic aluminium as the primary focus within the nonferrous metals sector.
The industry will seize this opportunity to advance systematic, high-standard energy conservation and carbon reduction for electrolytic aluminium around five core priorities, pushing forward the green low-carbon transformation of the nonferrous metals industry while ensuring stable industrial operation.
First, vigorously implement energy-saving and low-carbon technological upgrading. Promote advanced green low-carbon technologies across the electrolytic aluminium sector and upgrade production equipment such as aluminium reduction cells. Key technologies and equipment include new steady-flow heat-preserving aluminium reduction cells, graphitised cathodes, high-quality anodes and sealed upper gas collection systems for reduction cells.
Second, accelerate green energy substitution. Continuously raise the share of renewable power consumed by electrolytic aluminium operations. Optimise efficient recovery and cascade utilisation of waste heat from aluminium smelter flue gas, promote low-temperature waste heat power generation, and advance clean, low-carbon fuel replacement for industrial furnaces to tap full-process energy-saving and decarbonisation potential.
Third, optimise industrial structure. Strictly enforce capacity replacement policies for electrolytic aluminium. Accelerate upgrades for prebaked anode aluminium reduction cells below 300 kA, independent aluminium carbon projects with annual output below 150,000 tonnes, and ageing inefficient self-provided coal-fired power units. Expand the recycled nonferrous metals industry to deliver structural carbon reductions.
Fourth, achieve breakthroughs in green low-carbon key technologies. Focus on R&D into waste heat recovery from aluminium reduction cells, inert anodes, and medium-low temperature waste heat utilisation in pyrometallurgical processes for copper, lead and zinc, and accelerate demonstration projects.
Fifth, improve green low-carbon standards. Build a full life-cycle standard system covering mining, smelting, processing and recycled utilisation. Speed up development of public service platforms for green low-carbon development and establish a carbon emission factor database for the nonferrous metals industry.
In balancing industrial development and decarbonisation, the sector will adhere to the general principle of establishing new foundations before phasing out outdated capacity while pursuing steady progress. Through technological upgrading and greater use of recycled resources, the industry will secure stable supply of critical metals for new energy, next-generation information technology and other sectors. Industry-university-research collaborative innovation will promote green low-carbon technologies to achieve coordinated progress in quality improvement, efficiency gains and carbon reduction. Based on regional resource, energy and industrial conditions, upstream and downstream green industrial chains will be integrated to build coordinated low-carbon development systems for the sector.
Going forward, the Association will serve the overall industry agenda and support the three-year energy-saving and decarbonisation campaign in three ways:
First, deliver targeted services, build platforms to help enterprises overcome technical upgrading hurdles, and promote coordinated carbon reduction among industry players.
Second, pool innovation resources, drive research on core technologies such as flexible electrolysis and inert anodes, and accelerate demonstration and large-scale rollout of advanced low-carbon technologies.
Third, refine green low-carbon standards, advance the development of industry public service platforms and carbon emission databases, strengthen corporate carbon management capabilities, boost industry voice in international climate rules, and effectively tackle international green trade barriers.
? Henan Yuguang Gold & Lead Group Co., Ltd.: Zinc concentrate treatment charges (TCs) have plummeted sharply recently, hitting record lows. What measures will the Association take to help zinc smelters navigate industry cycles and achieve high-quality development?
Duan Shaofu: The trend of zinc concentrate treatment charges (TCs) has attracted widespread industry attention. Domestic concentrate TCs fell from approximately RMB 1,600 per metal tonne in early 2025 to negative RMB 500 per metal tonne by mid-2026. Imported concentrate TCs also declined to negative USD 70 per dry tonne, both marking all-time lows. TCs turned negative within 18 months amid a rapid downward slide. While similar structural drivers exist as those affecting copper concentrate TCs, the zinc sector has distinct characteristics, requiring targeted, comprehensive solutions.
First, leverage domestic resource advantages to boost reserve expansion and production. China has promising lead-zinc mineral resources. Major exploration and development projects including Huoshaoyun Lead-Zinc Mine in Xinjiang, Zhugongtang Lead-Zinc Mine and Danaopo Lead-Zinc Mine in Guizhou delivered significant progress during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and are expected to scale up further in the 15th Five-Year Plan. The Association will promote the launch of new and expanded mine projects, identify bottlenecks and coordinate efforts to accelerate progress, expanding effective supply of zinc concentrates at source.
Second, guide rational investment and avoid cut-throat competition. The Association will cooperate with relevant national authorities to strengthen industry monitoring and information guidance, support lead-zinc capacity early warning systems, release timely market updates, and guide enterprises to make informed decisions and operate in compliance. Together with environmental and industrial policies, it will promote the phase-out of inefficient backward capacity in accordance with laws and regulations, alleviating structural supply-demand imbalances.
Third, empower enterprises through technology and operational improvements and optimise raw material supply chains. The Association will support profitability improvements by promoting advanced technologies for precious and rare metal recovery, energy conservation, carbon reduction and deep processing. It will guide enterprises to extend industrial chains and increase product value to diversify revenue streams. Acting as a bridge between parties, the Association will help smelters connect with high-quality mine resources to stabilise integrated mining-smelting supply. It will also promote utilisation of recycled zinc to reduce reliance on primary concentrates and build diversified, stable and sustainable raw material supply systems.
Moving forward, the Association will continue to build industry consensus, promote self-discipline among enterprises, call for policy support, safeguard market order, and work with the whole sector to push treatment charges back to reasonable ranges, supporting stable, sustainable and high-quality development of the zinc industry.
? Aluminum Corporation of China: At present, a low-carbon premium for recycled aluminium has not yet taken shape, and relevant certification mechanisms cannot be effectively translated into price competitive advantages for enterprises. What plans does the Association have in this regard? What arrangements are underway for certification standards and supporting policies for full-life-cycle digital traceability systems?
Liu Hua: In November 2024, the Association launched the Recycled Metals Green Supply Chain Partner Initiative. It continues to optimise six collaborative systems covering products, technology, smart solutions, standards and certification, recycling and finance. The initiative links stakeholders across the whole chain ¡ª recycled aluminium producers, die-casting factories, end OEMs, research institutes, certification bodies and financial institutions ¡ª to advance closed-loop recycling, direct supply of molten aluminium, cascade material reuse, R&D of low-carbon new materials, carbon accounting and standards development. The work addresses concerns from downstream users, encourages voluntary uptake of recycled aluminium, and accelerates the formation of a market-based long-term mechanism delivering ¡°premium prices for high-quality, green products¡±.
Three specific measures will be implemented:
First, break information barriers across industrial chains and advance mutual recognition of domestic and international standards. The Association will continue refining standards covering carbon footprints for recycled aluminium, promote information interoperability across industrial chains, and break information silos between recycling, processing, application, testing and certification links to achieve integrated traceability, information sharing, upgrading and quality improvement. It will push for unified full-life-cycle carbon accounting boundaries, emission factors and traceability supervision requirements, realise mutual recognition between domestic low-carbon labelling and international green certifications, remove standard barriers limiting market uptake and cross-border trade, and lay a foundation for monetising the low-carbon value of recycled aluminium.
Second, foster industry talent and deepen joint technological R&D. Professional teaching materials on recycled aluminium jointly compiled by the Association, universities and enterprises will be completed soon. Regular training programmes covering green production, carbon footprint management and risk control will follow to upgrade professional capabilities across the sector. Platforms for upstream-downstream collaborative research will be established, where demand from end application sectors drives optimisation of material formulations and production processes upstream to improve the compatibility of recycled aluminium in processing. Focusing on high-end sectors including new energy vehicles, low-altitude aircraft, embodied intelligence and aerospace, industry-university-research joint scenario-based R&D and pilot projects will turn the sector¡¯s low-carbon resource advantages into market competitiveness.
Third, innovate industry-finance linkage mechanisms to unlock market momentum for green premiums. Accurate accounting of carbon emission reductions and energy savings from recycled aluminium will guide enterprises to standardise ESG disclosure and carbon footprint certification, raising market recognition of recycled aluminium¡¯s low-carbon attributes. Cast aluminium alloy futures instruments will support enterprises in hedging raw material price volatility risks, locking in operating costs and optimising procurement and sales models. Downstream manufacturers will be encouraged to establish green material procurement catalogues prioritising recycled aluminium products with low-carbon certification, with policy incentives for certified enterprises. By nurturing industry benchmarks and building demonstration green scenarios, the brand influence of recycled aluminium will be enhanced, activating coordinated low-carbon development across the industrial chain and gradually fostering a mature market ecosystem for stable low-carbon premiums for recycled aluminium.

